This present invention relates generally to a methodology for the derivation and use of dimensional values for qualities that are not normally dimensionally defined, and particularly to a methodology that may be utilized in estimating, for example, the run life of components or systems of components.
In many environments, systems and applications, it is difficult to predict with any accuracy the ultimate occurrence of specific events. For example, the estimation of run life for virtually any machine, system, component or application is difficult. The accumulation of data, e.g. run time till failure, for a specific device or component permits the determination of an average run life. However, if the complexity of the device or component is changed, or additional components are added to form a system, the run life of the component and/or system once again becomes largely unpredictable. Any predictability tends to be derived from consistent data obtained on the actual use and failure of a statistically significant number of same or similar components or systems.
It would be advantageous to have a methodology that could be utilized on a computer, for example, to more accurately predict non-dimensional parameters or events, such as run life.
The present invention relates to a method for accurately estimating a service life of a system having a plurality of components. The methodology includes establishing a complexity index value for each component of a system of components. The complexity index value is established by comparing one or more component parameters of each component to reference parameters of a corresponding reference component. The methodology further includes adding the complexity index values of the plurality of components to obtain a system complexity index value. Further, the method includes estimating a run life based on the system complexity index value.
According to another aspect of the invention, a system is provided for determining an output value related to a service parameter of a device. The system includes an interface to permit the entering of information related to the physical description of the device. The system typically is utilized on a computer and includes a comparison module able to compare parameters of the device to corresponding parameters of a reference device to obtain a comprehensive complexity index. Additionally, a correlation module is configured to correlate the complexity index with an output value related to the active service life of the device. Also, a display is utilized to permit a user to view the output value.
According to another aspect of the present invention, a method is provided for utilizing physical dimensional parameters as a predictor of an aspect of the operation of a device. The method includes selecting one or more dimensional parameters for a device, and comparing the one or more dimensional parameters to one or more corresponding reference parameters. The method further includes deriving a complexity index based on the comparison, and utilizing the complexity index to predict a desired operational aspect of the device.
According to yet another aspect of the present invention, a method is provided for predicting the run life of a downhole pumping system utilized in pumping a production fluid from a well. The method includes assigning a complexity number to each component of a well-related pumping system. The complexity number reflects the relative complexity of a given component to a reference component based on corresponding physical parameters. The method further includes adding together the complexity number of each component to obtain a comprehensive complexity index, and predicting the run life of the well-related pumping system based on the comprehensive complexity index.